The View from Caterham

This is my first contribution to our joint blog, and perhaps an appropriate place to start my part of this venture is with a few comments on Anglo-American relations. The ‘special relationship’ is certainly very much alive and well as far as Caterham and the WRA are concerned, and the next chapter in our ongoing exchange begins in just four weeks time. Those of us who are coming over met last week, and we are, understandably, very excited. Of course it’s even better this time because we have an American Presidential election in full swing; our only regret is that we have to get back just before November 4th and will miss the voting and the result.

You’d expect us to be excited because we’re all students of American Politics and we have a real academic interest in what’s going on the other side of the pond. You might be surprised, though, by how much interest there is among our general public in your election. Until very recently when it’s been dwarfed by the monumental upheaval in the financial markets, the US election has regularly been making headlines. I don’t think that’s just because America is so important in the world, or because the next President can claim with some justification to be a ‘World Leader’; it’s largely a reflection of the fact that your politics is just much more interesting than ours. Those of you who know me are well aware that I’m no great fan of Gordon Brown, our beleaguered PM, but it has been excruciating to watch him in recent weeks. He’s like an exhausted boxer, clinging on for dear life in the vain hope that he might survive until the final bell without being knocked out. His goal, of course, is 2010, when he will have to call an election, although I have no idea what he thinks will happen by then to improve his chances of a victory in our next general election. He cuts a sad shambling figure, overwhelmed by circumstances, undermined from within by his colleagues and increasingly incapable of doing anything to stem the tide flowing against him. In that sense he reminds me very much of George W Bush. They both have a zombie-like appearance at the moment; they are in charge, but only in name; they have lost the confidence of those around them and the general public, and the spotlight in which they once revelled has long since passed them by. The big difference is that you don’t have to focus on George Bush; he can to some extent suffer in silence; the spotlight really has moved on to Barack and John (and Sarah!). We have another two years of agony before someone else can have a go. We could, of course, replace the unelected Brown, or at least the Labour Party could, but don’t hold your breath, no one really wants the job. The big-hitters are keeping their powder dry until after the next election because they know Labour has no chance of winning in 2010 whoever is leader. If he is replaced it will be because he’s plumbed new depths in incompetence and has become not just a failure but a laughing-stock. Over there, you know from the start that the worst you can have with Obama or McCain is eight years, and if they really mess up you can kick them out after four years without having to change the Party ruling Congress. That’s a real advantage that we don’t have.

So- it’s at least in part to take our minds of our own suffering that we are revelling in your race at the moment. It’s revealing that we stand for office, but you run for it; there’s just so much more pace about US elections. Sarah Palin has appeared in a whirlwind from nowhere; that could never happen over here. If McCain loses she will presumably disappear again into relative obscurity (the career prospects of failed Vice-Presidential candidates is pretty grim; when you’re bored one evening see how many of them you can name…). Win or lose, though, she’s certainly interesting! Contrast her with Harriet Harman, Gordon Brown’s Deputy, or Jacqui Smith, who holds one of the top three jobs in UK Politics. You’ve probably never heard of them. Don’t worry, you haven’t missed much!

I recently played some clips of US & UK Party conferences to my students. The American version resembles a soccer play-off match; raucous, exciting, full of passion and commitment. Our Party Conferences resemble a County Cricket match; polite, restrained, well organised and guaranteed to put even the faithful to sleep. There’s probably more quality on display in our Conferences (who can forget Jenna Bush’s extraordinary display in 2004 at the Republican Convention?). But who cares? They bore the pants off us. Our elections are marked by daily Press Conferences when the same issues are discussed ad nauseam. Yours are punctuated by outrageous revelations and personal attacks that would make Rupert Murdoch blush. And, of course, yours really matter; at least this one does. For once we know that it will make a difference who wins. If McCain wins he will have little chance of getting much done at home, with hostile majorities in both Houses of Congress. He will focus on foreign policy and the war on terror; he’ll need to do something abroad to make his mark. Obama will be under enormous pressure to get out of Iraq quickly, and to do something useful at home. Interestingly, neither Obama nor McCain seems to have a coherent strategy for dealing with the Credit Crunch and the mountain of debt. The debates will be fascinating watching when this topic comes up!

So: who’s going to win? I’ve been teaching ever since I can remember that the polls a week after the Party Conventions accurately predict the winner. On that basis it’s McCain, just. I wonder though. There are dark rumours here of worse news to come on Sarah Palin. Her approval rating has plunged from +15 to +1 in just two weeks. Will she yet prove to be a liability rather than an asset to McCain? But when it comes to the crunch, will the South really vote for Obama in sufficient numbers to give him the crucial States he needs there? I have never been less sure of the outcome. If I were a betting man I’d be keeping my wallet tightly closed on this one. I hope Obama wins. Not because I’m a Democrat, or even because I think he’ll be a better President, but because America needs Obama to improve its image in a hostile world. It’ll be much harder for the anti-American propagandists to rubbish Obama than McCain. They can portray McCain as more of the same, but they can’t do that with Obama. I’m afraid, though, that while my heart says Obama, my head says McCain. Just. But I’m really not confident. It is exciting, though, isn’t it? If it all gets too much for you and you need to calm down, spare a thought for us, with two more years of Gordon Brown, and be glad you’re American!

Posted by Jim Bunting for Tom Murphy.