CHANGE? -- WHAT CHANGE?

Throughout this lengthy presidential campaign, the word most frequently used by the various candidates almost certainly is “change.” Barack Obama soared onto the political scene in January with “change we can believe in.” Thereafter, all the other Democratic candidates, including Hillary Clinton, rushed to wrap themselves in the change mantle.

John McCain, after running initially on national security and experience, has pivoted of late. Now, he and Governor Palin are the twin mavericks, offering reform and “real change” in Washington. The battle, for the next seven weeks, likely will focus on which campaign’s “change” message most resonates with the public.

But, despite the constant change mantra, what hasn’t changed is the shape of the American electorate. In fact, if anything, the last few weeks have produced both a Republican bounce and an increasingly ossified electoral battleground. Taking my data from the hyper-statistical http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/, here’s where things stand. If the election were held right now, in mid-September, Obama would win every state Senator Kerry carried in 2004. Similarly, McCain leads in all but two of the states President Bush secured in the last election. The Bush states in which Obama leads, Iowa, (fairly comfortably) and New Mexico, (narrowly) are two of only three states – New Hampshire is the other – that changed party allegiance from the 2000 election to 2004.


So, what does all of this mean? With the crucial caveat that many states remain close, the bottom line is this: as of now, we could have a situation where 47 states (and the District of Columbia) vote exactly the same way in three consecutive elections. Subject to confirmation through some research (note to my dear readers: help me out here and see what you find), this development -- if it does occur -- is quite astonishing and probably unheard of. A reasonable expectation, I think, is for five or six states to switch parties from one election to the next. Apparently the newness of the candidates (the first time in over half a century when not one of the four presidential and vice presidential contenders isn’t an incumbent), is making scant difference in the shape of the electoral map. Typical blue states are either solidly or slightly for the Democratic ticket and, with the two minor exceptions noted above, all of the red states look likely to vote Republican.

By the way, the scenario I have described results in McCain winning with 274 electoral votes; Obama receives 264. Stay tuned.