Starting Up

Well, the last couple of weeks, from a political perspective, have seen a whirlwind of activity.

As promised in my last post (June 13), we are re-starting the politics blog. And, as mentioned earlier, we’ll have expert commentary on the American political scene from “across the pond.” Look for frequent postings here from my good friend and a real expert on American politics, the Caterham School’s Deputy Headmaster, Tom Murphy. Speaking of that last blog, I’m still indulging in some smirky satisfaction at having picked the Sarah Palin rabbit out of the hat as John McCain’s Vice Presidential nominee. Whether her enthusiastic but still untested candidacy actually helps him, of course, remains to be seen.

Picking up where we left off in June, here’s my sense of where we are, less than 60 days from the election. Despite the enormous excitement and many twists and turns the race has provided to date, it’s likely the final result will look a lot like the last two presidential elections. What this means, I think, is that only about ten states will be hotly contested. If Senator Obama wins all the states John Kerry won four years ago, he’ll be at 252 electoral votes. Similarly, if McCain wins the Bush states from 2004, he’ll have 286, with 270 needed to win. (I should add that there’s a very slight chance the electoral vote ends in a 269-269 dead heat. In that unlikely eventuality, Obama probably wins -- we’ll discuss why this is so in a future blog.)

Two of the ten states “in play” – Michigan and New Hampshire – are blue states that McCain has a chance (but, I think, less than a 50-50 chance) to turn red. Two states, Iowa and New Mexico, are states Bush won last time but, as of now, appear ready to flip to Obama. If that happens and Obama holds Michigan and New Hampshire, he’ll be at 264 electoral votes. Then, well have to see what happens in the half dozen Bush states where Obama either trails closely or is narrowly ahead: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. An Obama win in any of the first five puts him over 270; a Nevada victory, coupled with the other assumptions mentioned above, gives us a 269-269 tie. All that can be said at this point is – stay tuned, it should be entertaining and exciting.

On a trial basis, we’re instituting a comment thread for Tom’s and my postings this year. We want to hear your observations, insights and questions. We’ll monitor the comments and publish many of them. More soon!