Well, the recently concluded Pennsylvania primary played right to form. Hillary Clinton’s 9.4% victory over Barack Obama was impressive. But, the question continues to be, as it has for several weeks: did it change the trajectory of the nominating contest?
The answer depends on the analytical tool used to address the question. Mathematically, the win produced an imperceptible reduction in Obama’s pledged delegate lead over Clinton. She picked up a net gain of about ten, so she now trails Obama by 156. He’s likely to regain (and perhaps increase) those ten by the time the Indiana and North Carolina primaries conclude eleven days from now. On the popular vote front, Clinton won Pennsylvania by about 220,000 votes, reducing Obama’s lead there (not counting, as the Democratic National Committee is not counting, Michigan and Florida), to about 500,000. Again, expect that number to go back up after May 6.
Psychologically -- perhaps also pragmatically -- Clinton’s win reinforces her best line of argument with the superdelegates; that is, her claim to be the better candidate in the big, “battleground” states in the November election. She and her supporters can point to wins in New York (admittedly her home state), New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas (in the primary if not in the caucus,) California, and the disputed contests in Michigan and Florida.
How and when will the Democratic superdelegates evaluate the competing data and perspectives and render a verdict? The best answer is yet another question: Who Knows? But, given the present state of play, and with nine contests remaining between now and June 3, don’t expect major movement from the supers until then. An Obama double victory in Indiana and North Carolina would, I believe, effectively seal the nomination for him but…West Virginia votes the following week and some prognosticators are predicting a 40 point! victory there for Clinton. Kentucky on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June 1 will likely give her big wins as well. On the other hand, it looks like Obama will come out on top in Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana. So, stay tuned.
Meanwhile, more anecdotally, I can provide the following from yesterday’s walking around St. Andrews on a beautiful spring day. I sighted an Obama ’08 bumper sticker, giving him what may very well be a potentially insurmountable 1-0 lead here over Senator Clinton. Also sighted (not on the same car, however), this bumper sticker: “ex-husband in boot.” Boot, as you may or may not know, is “trunk” for us Yanks. I have no further details to report but it doesn’t sound good.
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