The Ten-Percent Solution

Well, after six weeks without a vote, the biggest remaining primary occurs tomorrow. Pennsylvania’s Democratic voters will allocate 158 delegates between the Clinton and Obama candidacies and, as well, provide extensive talking points for the next couple of weeks.

Here’s a simplified way of analyzing tomorrow’s results, taking into account both the state of the race between the two candidates and the polling data that provides the background for the “expectations” game. Pennsylvania is viewed by many “experts” as demographically similar to its neighbor, Ohio. Clinton won Ohio last month by 10 points (54-44). Therefore, to eat substantially into Obama’s overall popular vote lead (in excess of 800,000), and really make an impression with the superdelegates, Clinton needs a 10-point or greater victory. A win by less than 10 (especially 5 or less), will be viewed as expected and not particularly helpful. But, of course, even a narrow win gives Clinton enough oxygen to move to the next two big events, North Carolina and Indiana, two weeks from tomorrow. A surprise Obama win, even by the narrowest of margins, will essentially give him the nomination.

Here’s another interesting mind-game to play before tomorrow’s vote. Right now, according to realclearpolitics, Obama has a 164 vote lead over Clinton in the pledged delegate category. (This is just pledged delegates; Clinton now has a 20-some super- delegate lead -- a lead that has been shrinking for the last several weeks.) Take a guess as to what Obama’s pledged delegate lead will be by Wednesday morning, May 7, after Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, and – we mustn’t forget – Guam. Guam, for my Caterham students, is an American territory located in the same ocean as Pitcairn Island, a tiny British possession from the days of Mutiny on the Bounty. Guam, whose license plate motto proudly reads “where America’s day begins”, will proudly provide 4 delegates to the Democratic funfest/convention in late August.

YOUR TASK: whether a student at Caterham or another interested reader, is to predict the extent of the Obama lead (yes, he will still be ahead, that’s a certainty), as of May 7. To play, send me an e-mail with your prediction, as in, “Obama’s lead will be 140 (or 180), (or ___)” Deadline for submittal is midnight tomorrow night, British time; 7 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow. The winner will get prominent mention in the blog and maybe even a prize if I can scrounge one up. Cheers to all.