St. Andrews

Well, it's been a long time (and many miles) since the last posting. My daughter, Rebecca, niece Kimberly, and I flew into Manchester airport a little more than a week ago. We then rented a car for what I had (stupidly) thought to be a four-hour drive to St. Andrews. Four hours got us a little more than half way but we arrived only slightly worse for wear.

We spent a week driving around Scotland and northern England before I dropped them back at Manchester for their return to the States. The scenary in Scotland is absolutely spectacular. Our stops included the Highlands, Fort William, Glencoe, Loch Ness (no monster sightings, unfortunately), Dunnottar Castle near Aberdeen, and a quick trip through Edinburgh. And, of course, there's the stunning beauty of St. Andrews, but more on that in another blog.

It will be challenging providing a running commentary on the political goings-on in the States for my Caterham students in Surrey from my sea-side apartment in St. Andrews. Nonetheless, we'll give it a try. The last posting noted the lengthy interval from the Mississippi primary on March 10 to the biggest remaining contest in Pennsylvania, now only 12 days away. Although the Democratic nomination battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clintion may continue to drag on until the final primaries on June 3 and thereafter, I offer here a simplified way of looking at the Obama-Clinton contest. Obama is clearly ahead. The next three contests, Pennsylvania and then North Carolina and Indiana, both on May 6, each provide more pledged delegates than any of the primaries or caucuses that follow them. Given Obama's lead, if he wins two of these three, he will effectively wrap up the nomination. On the other hand, if Clinton wins all three, it will be an entirely different ballgame. She might not catch Obama in the delegate count but will surely argue, with some persuasiveness, that momentum is on her side.

What happens if Clinton wins two out of three (probably Pennsylvania and Indiana) and Obama just North Carolina? The answer in all likelihood: the hand-to-hand combat will continue for quite a while longer.