Where's Your Local Hero?

One of the great benefits of my Schoolteacher Fellowship at the University of St. Andrews is the opportunity it presents to see the spectacular natural beauty of Scotland. This past weekend I set out in my rental car (driving on the “wrong” side of the road) on a mission I have wanted to accomplish for many years.

One of my favorite movies – this dates me but so what – called Local Hero, came out in the early '80s and is set primarily in Scotland. In one of his last appearances, Burt Lancaster co-stars as an eccentric Houston-based oil company CEO. The whimsical plot involves a fast-rising junior executive type named Mac (played by Peter Riegert) who is sent to Scotland by Lancaster’s company. Mac is supposed to buy up an entire town for the company’s new refinery. But…instead, he completely falls for the town, the people, the innkeeper/accountant with whom he is negotiating, and even the innkeeper’s wife. For example, toward the end of the movie, after some drunken celebrating as the sale nears completion, Mac tells his counterpart, Gordon Urquhart, that he wants to swap lives: Gordon can go to Houston, live in Mac’s expensive high-rise and drive his big bucks Porsche. Mac wants to stay in the little fishing village (with Gordon’s wife, of course), memorably telling the befuddled innkeeper: “I’d be a good Gordon, Gordon.”

I’ll leave the rest of the movie to you. My idea this weekend was to actually get to Pennan, the tiny place where much of the movie was filmed. My present time here in St. Andrews actually represents my third visit to Scotland. On both other occasions I had thought of getting to Pennan but failed to do so. This time I made it. Not surprisingly, the town is in a very remote spot on the northeast coast of Scotland between Banff and Fraserburgh. I spent Saturday night near Inverness – the capital of the Scottish Highlands – and got to Pennan early Sunday afternoon. If you are interested in checking out the town on line, go to, among other sites, www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/pennan/pennan/index.html.

The last mile or so to the town is essentially straight down, on a one-car only path that passes for a road. The town itself consists of about 20 houses on one street; the houses face out to the water and back up to the sheer, green cliff I had just descended. It was a glorious, sunny day. The locals were out talking and strolling on the street. The Pennan Inn, the site of much of the action in the film, was closed. The townsfolk were hoping for a new buyer soon. Other than the shuttered inn, there were no commercial establishments (in the typical sense) whatsoever. A poster board with some painted postcards sat on a bench by a house – each card cost about two pounds. Payment was on the honor system – you placed your coins in a glass bowl beside the cards. I bought a couple, looked out again at the harbour, and headed back to St. Andrews.

The drive back took about five hours. On the way, I thought of what I had heard and seen. One woman told me that visitors had come from as far away as the Falkland Islands! I think everyone has their own Pennan – a place to visualize frequently and maybe, just maybe, get to at least once. I was there no more than 30 minutes but the visit will stick with me a long time. And, yes, for those of you who have seen the movie, the red phone booth is still there.

What's Next?

Well, the recently concluded Pennsylvania primary played right to form. Hillary Clinton’s 9.4% victory over Barack Obama was impressive. But, the question continues to be, as it has for several weeks: did it change the trajectory of the nominating contest?

The answer depends on the analytical tool used to address the question. Mathematically, the win produced an imperceptible reduction in Obama’s pledged delegate lead over Clinton. She picked up a net gain of about ten, so she now trails Obama by 156. He’s likely to regain (and perhaps increase) those ten by the time the Indiana and North Carolina primaries conclude eleven days from now. On the popular vote front, Clinton won Pennsylvania by about 220,000 votes, reducing Obama’s lead there (not counting, as the Democratic National Committee is not counting, Michigan and Florida), to about 500,000. Again, expect that number to go back up after May 6.

Psychologically -- perhaps also pragmatically -- Clinton’s win reinforces her best line of argument with the superdelegates; that is, her claim to be the better candidate in the big, “battleground” states in the November election. She and her supporters can point to wins in New York (admittedly her home state), New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas (in the primary if not in the caucus,) California, and the disputed contests in Michigan and Florida.

How and when will the Democratic superdelegates evaluate the competing data and perspectives and render a verdict? The best answer is yet another question: Who Knows? But, given the present state of play, and with nine contests remaining between now and June 3, don’t expect major movement from the supers until then. An Obama double victory in Indiana and North Carolina would, I believe, effectively seal the nomination for him but…West Virginia votes the following week and some prognosticators are predicting a 40 point! victory there for Clinton. Kentucky on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June 1 will likely give her big wins as well. On the other hand, it looks like Obama will come out on top in Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana. So, stay tuned.

Meanwhile, more anecdotally, I can provide the following from yesterday’s walking around St. Andrews on a beautiful spring day. I sighted an Obama ’08 bumper sticker, giving him what may very well be a potentially insurmountable 1-0 lead here over Senator Clinton. Also sighted (not on the same car, however), this bumper sticker: “ex-husband in boot.” Boot, as you may or may not know, is “trunk” for us Yanks. I have no further details to report but it doesn’t sound good.

The Ten-Percent Solution

Well, after six weeks without a vote, the biggest remaining primary occurs tomorrow. Pennsylvania’s Democratic voters will allocate 158 delegates between the Clinton and Obama candidacies and, as well, provide extensive talking points for the next couple of weeks.

Here’s a simplified way of analyzing tomorrow’s results, taking into account both the state of the race between the two candidates and the polling data that provides the background for the “expectations” game. Pennsylvania is viewed by many “experts” as demographically similar to its neighbor, Ohio. Clinton won Ohio last month by 10 points (54-44). Therefore, to eat substantially into Obama’s overall popular vote lead (in excess of 800,000), and really make an impression with the superdelegates, Clinton needs a 10-point or greater victory. A win by less than 10 (especially 5 or less), will be viewed as expected and not particularly helpful. But, of course, even a narrow win gives Clinton enough oxygen to move to the next two big events, North Carolina and Indiana, two weeks from tomorrow. A surprise Obama win, even by the narrowest of margins, will essentially give him the nomination.

Here’s another interesting mind-game to play before tomorrow’s vote. Right now, according to realclearpolitics, Obama has a 164 vote lead over Clinton in the pledged delegate category. (This is just pledged delegates; Clinton now has a 20-some super- delegate lead -- a lead that has been shrinking for the last several weeks.) Take a guess as to what Obama’s pledged delegate lead will be by Wednesday morning, May 7, after Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, and – we mustn’t forget – Guam. Guam, for my Caterham students, is an American territory located in the same ocean as Pitcairn Island, a tiny British possession from the days of Mutiny on the Bounty. Guam, whose license plate motto proudly reads “where America’s day begins”, will proudly provide 4 delegates to the Democratic funfest/convention in late August.

YOUR TASK: whether a student at Caterham or another interested reader, is to predict the extent of the Obama lead (yes, he will still be ahead, that’s a certainty), as of May 7. To play, send me an e-mail with your prediction, as in, “Obama’s lead will be 140 (or 180), (or ___)” Deadline for submittal is midnight tomorrow night, British time; 7 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow. The winner will get prominent mention in the blog and maybe even a prize if I can scrounge one up. Cheers to all.

The Old Course

Let's set aside for the moment American politics and the continuing saga of the Democratic presidential nominating process. We can all take a deep breath, slowly exhale, think of something else, and return to the fray soon.

In that spirit, here’s an on-the-ground report from St. Andrews. This past weekend, I and other golf enthusiasts watched the annual coming of spring ritual – the Masters, from Augusta, Georgia. Thanks to the ubiquitous BBC, I saw live coverage (with no commercials) from my flat here in St. Andrews.

But, in addition to watching the final round of the Masters on Sunday, I had another golf-related opportunity that day. As many of you know, the Masters is the first of the four golfing “majors” held each year. Two of the others (the U.S. Open and the PGA tournament) also are held in the States. The other, held every July, is called (back home) the British Open and (here), simply the Open Championship. The acknowledged home of golf, and frequent site for the British Open is right here in St. Andrews – the Old Course.

In fact, legend has it that golf first got started here, sometime in the 1400s, about the same time St. Andrews University was founded (1413). Golf has been played here continuously since then – two years from now the Old Course will once again host the British Open. Despite its elite status, there’s an air of egalitarianism and openness about the Old Course.

The Old Course closes down every Sunday to, among other things, allow the locals to picnic on it, fly kites, or generally just walk around the grounds. Which is exactly what I did. I started on the first tee, made my way up the fairway to the green, proceeded to the second tee, and so on right through to the finishing hole, number 18. It took about two hours but was well worth it. After seeing a few folks on the first fairway, I was alone with the course and (for many holes) the North Sea. The course was awe-inspiring in a rugged, wind-blown fashion. I got to see the numerous (and lethal) pot bunkers as well as the famous “road” hole – number 17, where, if your ball ends up on the road, too bad – you play it from there.

After walking up number 18, I headed back to watch the final round of the Masters from my flat, a ten minute walk from the course. As I did, I couldn’t help comparing the Old Course with Augusta. In terms of sheer beauty, with every magnolia, flowering cherry, rose, and dogwood immaculately groomed, the Masters course wins out.

But, for history, tradition, and access, there’s much to be said for the Old Course. Golf enthusiasts the world over come to play it (42,000 rounds are played annually). All you need is a decent handicap and a willingness to endure some potentially nasty weather. Not so with Augusta – its exclusivity precludes all but a chosen few amateurs from playing there. And, I think we’re a long way away from the members opening the course on a weekly basis for any and everyone to tromp over it. Augusta is great but I’ll take the Old Course.

Meta-themes

Analyzing the American political scene, and more particularly the Democratic presidential contest, from 3000 miles away offers some challenges as well as benefits. A big benefit, for example: no 24/7 bombardment by CNN, Fox, MSNBC, on each and every minor matter remotely related to the campaign. The challenge is really just the opposite side of the benefit coin; that is, trying to make sense out of unfiltered information available through the internet. The basic “facts” are still available but the sorting and sifting of what’s important to the political “chattering class” and what’s important to the people (by no means the same thing), are entirely up to me, your faithful blog poster.

Which leads me to a brief commentary on the latest rumblings in the increasingly contentious battle between Senators Clinton and Obama. As you probably know by now, Obama, in response to a question as to why white working-class voters are not embracing his vision of hope and change, offered the following: “You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them…And it’s not surprising then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

When I first read Obama’s comment and the ferocious attacks on it by both Clinton and McCain spokespersons, my immediate reaction was: this is no big deal -- Obama’s opponents are really overreaching. Now I’m not so sure. Here’s why.

Political experts have concluded, probably correctly, that the vast majority of the American public pays attention only infrequently to the minutiae of the country’s increasingly long and complicated presidential nomination/election process. Instead, the average American citizen, with lots of other more immediately important things on his or her mind, forms an impression based on a candidate’s meta-theme. To be successful, of course, a politician’s positive meta-theme needs to win out in the electorate’s collective thinking over the opposition’s negative meta-theme directed at that particular candidate.

To be a little more specific, let’s take Obama. His meta-theme, we can agree, is based on hope, change, and unity. Both Clinton and McCain, coming from different perspectives, seek to portray Obama through a negative meta-theme as ultra-liberal, elitist, and inexperienced. And here’s where they hope to (and may) succeed. Most people who “cling to their guns” do so because they like to hunt, most believers “cling to religion” because of a deep-seated faith. In neither case do they do so out of “bitterness.” Very few Americans will spend the time or energy sifting through each and every word of what Obama said or what he really meant. Clinton and McCain know that and are betting their negative meta-theme trumps (or at the least blurs) Obama’s positive one.

The fact that he made the comment in San Francisco (not exactly small town) only days before the Pennsylvania primary where Obama is working feverishly to win over working class whites in the small towns and countryside between the big metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on either end of the state, doesn’t help. A counterattack by Obama, directed against both his Democratic opponent and the presumptive Republican nominee asserting that the country is angry (maybe even bitter), with government and Washington insiders (Clinton and McCain more so than Obama) and that that was the real point of his comments, is already underway. The battle of the meta-themes continues.

St. Andrews

Well, it's been a long time (and many miles) since the last posting. My daughter, Rebecca, niece Kimberly, and I flew into Manchester airport a little more than a week ago. We then rented a car for what I had (stupidly) thought to be a four-hour drive to St. Andrews. Four hours got us a little more than half way but we arrived only slightly worse for wear.

We spent a week driving around Scotland and northern England before I dropped them back at Manchester for their return to the States. The scenary in Scotland is absolutely spectacular. Our stops included the Highlands, Fort William, Glencoe, Loch Ness (no monster sightings, unfortunately), Dunnottar Castle near Aberdeen, and a quick trip through Edinburgh. And, of course, there's the stunning beauty of St. Andrews, but more on that in another blog.

It will be challenging providing a running commentary on the political goings-on in the States for my Caterham students in Surrey from my sea-side apartment in St. Andrews. Nonetheless, we'll give it a try. The last posting noted the lengthy interval from the Mississippi primary on March 10 to the biggest remaining contest in Pennsylvania, now only 12 days away. Although the Democratic nomination battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clintion may continue to drag on until the final primaries on June 3 and thereafter, I offer here a simplified way of looking at the Obama-Clinton contest. Obama is clearly ahead. The next three contests, Pennsylvania and then North Carolina and Indiana, both on May 6, each provide more pledged delegates than any of the primaries or caucuses that follow them. Given Obama's lead, if he wins two of these three, he will effectively wrap up the nomination. On the other hand, if Clinton wins all three, it will be an entirely different ballgame. She might not catch Obama in the delegate count but will surely argue, with some persuasiveness, that momentum is on her side.

What happens if Clinton wins two out of three (probably Pennsylvania and Indiana) and Obama just North Carolina? The answer in all likelihood: the hand-to-hand combat will continue for quite a while longer.