Super Tuesday -- Send Me Your Predictions

OK, Caterhamians, Super Tuesday is nearly upon us. It's time to think seriously about what's going to happen in the next couple of days and also to have some fun.

To make things manageable, let's concentrate on the Democratic race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Twenty-two states and one territory (American Samoa) will send their Democratic voters to primaries or caucuses that day. I'm listing the states and the number of delegates at stake in each. Your job, based on your political knowledge and some sense of the demographics in each state, is to predict which states (for this exercise, we'll call American Samoa a state) Clinton and Obama will win and, as well, the total delegate split for each candidate. You don't need to break out the delegate split on a state by state basis unless you are really compulsive.

So, for example, you might say this: Clinton to win 15 states, (then list the 15 you think she will win), Obama to win 8, (again, list the 8 that go for him), with an overall delegate split of 57% for Clinton and 43% for Obama. Remember what I have been saying about proportional representation as you determine your delegate percentages. Here goes:

California 441
New York 281
Illinois 185
New Jersey 127
Massachusetts 121
Georgia 103
Minnesota 88
Missouri 88
Tennessee 85
Colorado 71
Arizona 67
Connecticut 60
Alabama 60
Arkansas 47
Oklahoma 47
Kansas 41
New Mexico 38
Utah 29
Delaware 23
Idaho 23
North Dakota 21
Alaska 18
American Samoa 9

E-mail me by NO LATER THAN 2300 hours London time on Tuesday Febraury 5. See if you can get Mr. Murphy, Mr. Clark, and other faculty to play. Winners will get a yet-to-be-determined prize and will be announced as soon as the smoke clears.