Where Things Stand

Nine days to go before the crucial primaries in Texas and right here in Ohio. Two smaller states, Rhode Island and Vermont, also vote on March 4.

Most of the action and excitement continues to center on the Democratic contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Although the polls for these two states show either a draw (Texas) or a modest lead for Clinton (Ohio), the political smart money figures Obama’s 11 straight victories since Super Tuesday give him valuable momentum to win one, if not both, of these two biggies. Further, the developing collective wisdom says that, unless Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio, her campaign will be effectively over. I’m not so sure. Losing both will, I agree, definitely knock her out. But, a victory in either Texas or, more likely here, could provide an argument to continue on to the next (and last) really big prize, Pennsylvania on April 22. One good way, Caterham students, to keep up with all the day-to-day developments on the ground over here is to check the following link: www.realclearpolitics.com. It’s got everything you could want – delegate counts; editorials; excellent analysis. Be sure to get back to me with your comments on what I’m saying or anything that captures your interest on the realclear web-site.

Meanwhile, not discussed as much because it’s essentially over, the Republican race heated up over the last few days. That occurred not because anyone really thinks Mike Huckabee can wrest the nomination from the now-prohibitive favorite John McCain. Rather, the fireworks began when Thursday’s New York Times ran a front-page story intimating that McCain, nine years ago, had a “romantic relationship” with a Washington lobbyist thirty years his junior. Both McCain and the woman lobbyist have denied they were anything other than friends. And, in a perverse, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” mode, many conservatives in the Republican party, initially luke-warm at best to McCain, have now rallied to his side. As a final, ironic point, it was only a few weeks ago that the Times endorsed for the Republican nomination – you guessed it – John McCain! Does the phrase “politics makes strange bedfellows” have some applicability here?

Discussion Questions:

1. What are your predictions for the Democratic primaries in Texas and Ohio? Why do you think so?

2. What do you think of the New York Times story on McCain? If you were the editor, would you have printed the story? Why or why not?

Wisconsin's Over - Now Texas and Ohio

In the wake of Barack Obama’s convincing win over Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin last night, we can identify some important issues and answer some good questions. First, let’s take a look at Samir’s e-mail comments, sent before we knew the results of the Wisconsin primary:

Comment by Samir D.:
I thought I'd give my opinion on a few issues for the blog- I really enjoy looking at it!

I think that the Democrat nominating process is fair because every senator, representative and governor should have the right to endorse a candidate and play a part in getting them elected. I can however see the "unfair arguments". Maybe, I'm just a bit biased because Hillary Clinton needs every superdelegate she can get. I also feel that Michigan and Florida should have their delegates counted at the National Convention because it wasn't the fault of the ordinary Florida voter - 2 million people (I think)'s votes counted for nothing- that's unfair and undemocratic. Michigan/Florida Democrats broke the rules but not the citizens of Michigan/Florida.

I wanted to ask you-
What is the situation in Ohio like? Have the candidates visited the areas near Hudson? Do you think that a lot of independents will vote in the Democratic primary either to vote against Clinton because they hate her or for Clinton because they feel that McCain has a better chance of beating her than Obama?

I personally think Ohio will be her comeback state but think that Wisconsin is going to be closer than we think!

Hope all is well- look forward to seeing the next blog post!

Thanks for your comments, Samir.

For today, let’s focus on one important and often overlooked topic: the type of primary conducted in Wisconsin. In that state, they run an open primary, which means that any registered voter can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary. (Many states, such as Maryland, have a closed primary – you can only vote in your party’s primary; if you are registered as an independent, you can’t vote in EITHER primary.)

Exit polls from Wisconsin showed Obama and Clinton splitting the vote of registered Democrats nearly 50-50. Where Obama won big was with independents and Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary. He won those voters (about a quarter of the total vote in the primary), by a huge margin (65-35 or so). That explains the lopsided 17 point victory he scored over Senator Clinton.

What happened in Wisconsin gets me to Samir’s question about Ohio. Our state (and Texas too, for that matter) also has an open primary. Most observers think that, as in Wisconsin, a substantial number of independents and Republicans will cast ballots in the Democratic primary. And Wisconsin is likely to be a good indicator of how those folks will vote in Ohio and Texas. Whether Senator Clinton has enough traditional Democratic party support in Ohio to stave off this likely independent/Republican tilt toward Obama and make it, as Samir says, “her comeback state” is, of course, the big question to be answered over the next two weeks. What do the rest of you think about Samir’s point? What about your general thoughts on the American presidential nominating process?

Let me leave you with this thought: Remember, upper 6th students, when we went to the American Politics seminar at the British Library in early November? We had four “experts” (two former Congresswomen and two University instructors) give us their presidential picks.

Here’s what they said: for the Republicans, Giuliani 3, Romney 1, McCain, 0. For the Democrats, Clinton 4, Obama nada. Que pasa?

Superdelegates – The Impending Democratic Train Wreck?

A few entries ago, I promised to address the thorny topic of superdelegates to the Democratic Party’s National Convention. As they are attracting increasing attention, I guess I should follow up now.

Essentially, 20% or so of the party’s convention delegates fall into this superdelegate category. They are, typically, senators, representatives, governors, and other party poobahs, at both the state and Federal level. (Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman was recently stripped of his superdelegate status for endorsing John McCain – a major no-no – for President.)

The other 80% of the convention delegates are the so-called “pledged delegates” chosen through the nominating process that began with Iowa and New Hampshire, continued through Super Tuesday, and will finally culminate in early June. As mentioned earlier, pledged delegates, whether chosen in a primary or caucus, are allocated by the Democrats through proportional representation. (Contrast this with the Republicans, who, in many states, award their delegates on a “winner-take-all” basis. As a result, the Republicans, not surprisingly, are a lot closer to crowning a nominee than are the Democrats.)

As we know, both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are neck and neck in the pledged delegate count. With about 2/3 of the caucuses and primaries now concluded, and keeping in mind the proportionality concept, it’s becoming increasingly likely that neither candidate can secure the nomination based just on pledged delegates. So, as time passes, the importance of the superdelegates increases. And, because these delegates are not chosen in the primaries or caucuses, they can vote for whomever they choose. Thus, it could happen that a candidate behind in the pledged delegate count (and in the popular vote totals for that matter), could nonetheless win the nomination if she (or he) got enough support from the superdelegates. Many leading superdelegates assert it will never come to this but, all we can say at this point is: We’ll see. By the way, lurking as the next arcane but contentious issue, what to do with the previously disqualified delegates from Michigan and Florida? But that’s a topic for a future blog.

Meanwhile, and more immediately, today brings a primary in Wisconsin and a caucus in Hawaii. These may (but probably won’t) make things a little clearer.

Discussion Questions:

What do you think of the Democratic Party’s nominating process? In particular, do you think it is fair or unfair?

How (if at all) would you change the process? For example, would you keep proportional representation? Would you keep superdelegates without any restrictions on how they cast their votes?

Catching Up

Today's blog tries to tie up some loose ends. These include the following: still no winner in the New Mexico Democratic caucus, one week after Super Tuesday. As I mentioned in the last blog, Andrew had the best estimate on the states won by Obama and Clinton, regardless of which way New Mexico goes.

The most accurate assessment of the delegates won on Super Tuesday has the two Democratic contenders splitting the vote nearly 50-50%. It looks like Clinton won 819 delegates and Obama 817. The best Caterham student prediction on the delegate split was Marcus's; he had Clinton winning 52% and Obama 48%. We'll be sure to come up with something for our two winners and figure out a way to get it to Caterham.

Now for an overdue answer to questions from Kate K.: The Ohio primary is scheduled for Tuesday March 4, exactly three weeks from today. Given the tightness of the Democratic nominating process, Ohio (and Texas that same day) will be hugely important in determining the ultimate result.

Today's "Potomac Primaries" -- Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia -- all look like victories for Obama. On the Republican side, John McCain is favored in all three although Mike Huckabee might surprise in Virginia. Next time we'll look at the exceedingly close delegate race for the Democratic nomination.

After Super Tuesday

Wow! Super Tuesday is over. In my last blog, I said I would post the results as soon as the smoke cleared. Well, it's still a little cloudy over here but I can provide at least a partial update. Remember, on the Democratic side, I was looking for Caterham student predictions on the number of states Clintion and Obama would win as well as the delegate split between the two of them.

The delegate situation will take another day or two to sort out. For that matter, even the state count can't be nailed down completely yet. In New Mexico, with over 130,000 votes cast, Clinton leads Obama by less than 200! So, although New Mexico can't be called, we know Clinton won 8 states (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, plus, we can't forget, American Samoa). Obama won 13 (Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, and Utah). The final state total, depending on which way New Mexico goes, will be either 14-9 or 13-10 in favor of Obama. So, we have a winner on the state count: Andrew C. who had Obama with 12 and Clinton with 11. No other student had Obama with more than 10.

I'll try to make some sense of the delegate situation in the next posting, as well as look at the apparent developing clarity on the Republican side.

Discussion Questions:

1. Who do you think will win the Democratic caucuses and primaries (7 in all) in the upcoming week? The 7 are: Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington (on Saturday), Maine (Sunday), and the so-called "Potomac Primaries" next Tuesday (Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia).

2. What trends, if any, do you see developing for both the Democratic and Republican nominations?

Remember to send me your comments and questions. I'll try to post many of them.

Super Tuesday -- Send Me Your Predictions

OK, Caterhamians, Super Tuesday is nearly upon us. It's time to think seriously about what's going to happen in the next couple of days and also to have some fun.

To make things manageable, let's concentrate on the Democratic race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Twenty-two states and one territory (American Samoa) will send their Democratic voters to primaries or caucuses that day. I'm listing the states and the number of delegates at stake in each. Your job, based on your political knowledge and some sense of the demographics in each state, is to predict which states (for this exercise, we'll call American Samoa a state) Clinton and Obama will win and, as well, the total delegate split for each candidate. You don't need to break out the delegate split on a state by state basis unless you are really compulsive.

So, for example, you might say this: Clinton to win 15 states, (then list the 15 you think she will win), Obama to win 8, (again, list the 8 that go for him), with an overall delegate split of 57% for Clinton and 43% for Obama. Remember what I have been saying about proportional representation as you determine your delegate percentages. Here goes:

California 441
New York 281
Illinois 185
New Jersey 127
Massachusetts 121
Georgia 103
Minnesota 88
Missouri 88
Tennessee 85
Colorado 71
Arizona 67
Connecticut 60
Alabama 60
Arkansas 47
Oklahoma 47
Kansas 41
New Mexico 38
Utah 29
Delaware 23
Idaho 23
North Dakota 21
Alaska 18
American Samoa 9

E-mail me by NO LATER THAN 2300 hours London time on Tuesday Febraury 5. See if you can get Mr. Murphy, Mr. Clark, and other faculty to play. Winners will get a yet-to-be-determined prize and will be announced as soon as the smoke clears.

Florida is History -- So are Giuliani and Edwards

The winner take all Republican primary in Florida resulted in an impressive win for John McCain. The Arizona Senator won a pretty convincing victory over Mitt Romney, garnering 36% of the vote to Romney's 31%. Finishing a distant third was former New York city Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- more on Giuliani in a little bit. The Florida win positions McCain to get close to the Republican nomination if he does as well as expected in the upcoming "Super Tuesday" primaries and caucuses. As noted in an earlier blog, because the Republicans, unlike the Democrats, allow for "winner take all" primaries (as, for example, in Florida), McCain stands to pick up a slew of delegates with wins in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut among other states on Tuesday. So, even though the Republicans have four candidates still officially in the race (Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are the other two) compared to only two Democratic candidates, look for the Republicans to have a nominee considerably earlier than the Democrats.

The other big developments in the last couple of days, in addition to the McCain victory, were the decisions by both Democrat John Edwards and Republican Rudy Giuliani to drop out of the presidential race. Edwards saw the hand writing on the wall -- the Democratic contest has become a two person slug fest between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. As for Giuliani, his dismal showing stands as a show piece of how NOT to run a presidential campaign. After dipping his toe in the water but refusing to jump in in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina, he tried frantically to gain momentum in Florida but to no avail. Thanks to his 15% plus finish there, he managed exactly ONE convention delegate, at a cost of upwards of $40 million in campaign expenditures. At that rate, he would have had to spend nearly $5 billion to succeed. (1191 delegates are needed to win the Republican nomination.) Pretty soon you are talking about real money.

The next blog looks at the Democratic situatation right before Super Tuesday. Remember, Caterham students, to send your e-mails with questions and comments. I will try to post many of them.