Political Shock and Awe Morphing to Trench Warfare

OK, stick with me as this gets a little complicated.

South Carolina's Democrats gave Barack Obama a big and much needed win over the weekend. Florida's Republicans vote tomorrow in what's expected to be a nail bitingly close election between Mitt Romney and John McCain. Former front runner Rudy Giuliani and Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee trail by a large margin.

The Tuesday February 5 "Super Tuesday" voting will occur in 21 states including 6 that each choose over 100 Democratic delegates (California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Georgia). Here's a crucial difference between the Democrats and the Republicans in their nominating processes. The Democrats REQUIRE each state to allocate its delegates on a proportional basis; the Republicans, on the other hand, allow the states to choose either this approach or, (as is the case in Florida), to grant all of the state's delegates to the winner of the state's primary or caucus.

What this means is, especially on the Democratic side, every delegate in every state is up for grabs. And, as you probably know, to secure the nomination, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority (one more than half), of the Convention's delegates. So, although every presidential candidate hopes for a quick knock out punch --"shock and awe"-- to win the nomination early, unite the party behind them, and prepare for the general election in the fall, that scenario this year for the Democrats, and possibly for the Republicans as well, may be turning into the political equivalent of the Battle of the Somme. For example, after the first four Democratic contests, Obama has 63 elected delegates, Clinton 48, and Edwards 26. (I haven't included the so-called "super delegates" in this total -- that's a topic for another blog.)

If the race continues to be close after the smoke clears on the morning of February 6, the candidates -- especially the two front runners, Clinton and Obama -- will have to press on to other contests throughout February and into the Spring. Many pundits thought, not too long ago, that Ohio's primary on March 4 would, because it comes relatively late in the process, be essentially meaningless. Instead, it's increasingly likely that it will be one more big, closely contested battle in a very long war.

Questions to analyze and discuss:

Which system, proportional representation or "winner take all," seems better to you? Why do you think so?

Comment by Kate K.:
The Presidential caucuses seem rather exciting, I’ve been reading your blog. I heard yesterday that Rudy Guiliani has pulled out but is backing John McCain, which is interesting to hear, as he seems to be the most popular of the Republicans at the moment. Out of interest, who are you supporting? And what’s the situation in Ohio? When do the caucuses get to you?