Well, the results are now in from the weekend's voting. Hillary Clinton won a narrow victory over Barack Obama in the Democratic Nevada caucus. John Edwards trailed with a distant and dismal 4% of the vote. Although Edwards is making another stand in his native state of South Carolina, which votes this Saturday, it's hard to imagine that he'll finish first or second there. The Democrats are moving quickly to a two person battle which still looks extremely close.
But...Obama really has to win in South Carolina to prevent the re-emergence of the "inevitability" aura that surrounded Mrs. Clinton until his unexpected Iowa caucus victory. If Obama does win in South Carolina, the stage will be set for a massive battle on "Super Tuesday," February 5th.
As for the Republicans, all eyes are on the Florida primary, set for a week from today. At the moment, it's a three-way battle for first between John McCain, the winner (narrowly) of this weekend's Repubican South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney, who won the largely uncontested Nevada Republican caucus, and the yet-to-participate Rudy Giuliani. Mike Huckabee's loss in South Carolina, a state with a large Republican evangelical vote, has hurt him substantially. He looks like a fourth place finisher in Florida. As for Fred Thompson, he's all but finished and may formally withdraw any day now.
SOME QUESTIONS TO PONDER:
1. What is the difference between a "closed" primary, like the upcoming one for the Republicans in Florida, and an "open" primary? Who is helped or hurt by these different types of primaries?
2. Why is Florida so important for the Republicans but essentially a non-issue for the Democrats?
3. Why did the Republicans vote last week in South Carolina but the Democrats do so this week?
Stay tuned for more exciting chaos.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
More Voting -- Still Muddled
Posted by Jim Bunting at 9:23 AM
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