Political Shock and Awe Morphing to Trench Warfare

OK, stick with me as this gets a little complicated.

South Carolina's Democrats gave Barack Obama a big and much needed win over the weekend. Florida's Republicans vote tomorrow in what's expected to be a nail bitingly close election between Mitt Romney and John McCain. Former front runner Rudy Giuliani and Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee trail by a large margin.

The Tuesday February 5 "Super Tuesday" voting will occur in 21 states including 6 that each choose over 100 Democratic delegates (California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Georgia). Here's a crucial difference between the Democrats and the Republicans in their nominating processes. The Democrats REQUIRE each state to allocate its delegates on a proportional basis; the Republicans, on the other hand, allow the states to choose either this approach or, (as is the case in Florida), to grant all of the state's delegates to the winner of the state's primary or caucus.

What this means is, especially on the Democratic side, every delegate in every state is up for grabs. And, as you probably know, to secure the nomination, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority (one more than half), of the Convention's delegates. So, although every presidential candidate hopes for a quick knock out punch --"shock and awe"-- to win the nomination early, unite the party behind them, and prepare for the general election in the fall, that scenario this year for the Democrats, and possibly for the Republicans as well, may be turning into the political equivalent of the Battle of the Somme. For example, after the first four Democratic contests, Obama has 63 elected delegates, Clinton 48, and Edwards 26. (I haven't included the so-called "super delegates" in this total -- that's a topic for another blog.)

If the race continues to be close after the smoke clears on the morning of February 6, the candidates -- especially the two front runners, Clinton and Obama -- will have to press on to other contests throughout February and into the Spring. Many pundits thought, not too long ago, that Ohio's primary on March 4 would, because it comes relatively late in the process, be essentially meaningless. Instead, it's increasingly likely that it will be one more big, closely contested battle in a very long war.

Questions to analyze and discuss:

Which system, proportional representation or "winner take all," seems better to you? Why do you think so?

Comment by Kate K.:
The Presidential caucuses seem rather exciting, I’ve been reading your blog. I heard yesterday that Rudy Guiliani has pulled out but is backing John McCain, which is interesting to hear, as he seems to be the most popular of the Republicans at the moment. Out of interest, who are you supporting? And what’s the situation in Ohio? When do the caucuses get to you?

Race, Gender and Now, Age

You no doubt have been following the contretemps between Hillary (and Bill) Clinton and Barack Obama on the sensitive issues of race and gender. It will be instructive to see how these play out in tomorrow's Democratic primary in South Carolina.

Now, as if there's not enough going on already, Chuck Norris, the action-adventure movie guy and a big supporter of Mike Huckabee, has weighed in on "the age thing." Norris, no spring chicken himself at 67, has opined that John McCain, the winner in the Republican South Carolina primary, will be too old (72 at the time of next January's inauguration) to serve as president. McCain's come back injected a little humor into the fray. When told of Norris's statement, McCain responded by saying he was going to get his mother, very active and agile at 95, to "wash Norris's mouth out with soap." Mr. Norris hasn't been heard from since.

Questions to analyze and discuss:

1. Should these issues of race, gender and age be legitimate topics for consideration in the presidential election process?

2. Who do you think is helped or hurt by these issues? Why do you think so?

More Voting -- Still Muddled

Well, the results are now in from the weekend's voting. Hillary Clinton won a narrow victory over Barack Obama in the Democratic Nevada caucus. John Edwards trailed with a distant and dismal 4% of the vote. Although Edwards is making another stand in his native state of South Carolina, which votes this Saturday, it's hard to imagine that he'll finish first or second there. The Democrats are moving quickly to a two person battle which still looks extremely close.

But...Obama really has to win in South Carolina to prevent the re-emergence of the "inevitability" aura that surrounded Mrs. Clinton until his unexpected Iowa caucus victory. If Obama does win in South Carolina, the stage will be set for a massive battle on "Super Tuesday," February 5th.

As for the Republicans, all eyes are on the Florida primary, set for a week from today. At the moment, it's a three-way battle for first between John McCain, the winner (narrowly) of this weekend's Repubican South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney, who won the largely uncontested Nevada Republican caucus, and the yet-to-participate Rudy Giuliani. Mike Huckabee's loss in South Carolina, a state with a large Republican evangelical vote, has hurt him substantially. He looks like a fourth place finisher in Florida. As for Fred Thompson, he's all but finished and may formally withdraw any day now.

SOME QUESTIONS TO PONDER:

1. What is the difference between a "closed" primary, like the upcoming one for the Republicans in Florida, and an "open" primary? Who is helped or hurt by these different types of primaries?

2. Why is Florida so important for the Republicans but essentially a non-issue for the Democrats?

3. Why did the Republicans vote last week in South Carolina but the Democrats do so this week?

Stay tuned for more exciting chaos.

US Politics -- Up Close and Personal

Dear Caterham colleagues and students,

Well, I'm back in the States and, I have to tell you, missing you and the Caterham School a lot. One way I thought of to keep in touch was to provide a fairly frequent blog on the increasingly interesting American political scene. Mr. Clark thought it a good idea so, even though we haven't been able to check with Mr. Woo, here goes.

For the Republicans, Michigan on Tuesday was a BIG, actually mandatory, win for Mitt Romney. So far, three contests on the Republican side and three winners (Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire). South Carolina is Saturday for the Republicans (a week from Saturday for the Democrats). Romney is not likely to do well there but should win the less important Nevada caucus that same day. Look for McCain and Huckabee to battle it out for first place in South Carolina. My prediction is -- Huckabee. If Fred Thompson doesn't get a first or second (not likely to happen), his campaign will be essentially finished.

Tomorrow some thoughts on the Democrats.

Back from Caterham

I wrapped up my stay at the Caterham School on December 15. The next stage in my sabbatical and study abroad program is a fellowship program at St. Andrew's University, Scotland. Please check back in March for more information about that special program. It's scheduled to run from April 1 - June 15, 2008.