And, Along With Everything Else, Now There's Michigan and Florida

First of all, hats off to Samir; he was the first Caterham student with the right answer on the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. He correctly identified the three (and only three!) states that switched their vote from one party to the other in these two elections. New Hampshire voted for Bush in 2000 but went for John Kerry in the following election; Iowa and New Mexico voted for Al Gore in 2000 but switched to Bush in 2004.

And now to more recent events. Hillary Clinton’s impressive wins Tuesday in Ohio and Texas have further complicated (assuming that’s possible) the Democratic Party’s nominating process. And, ironically, the increasing murkiness on the Democratic side occurred on the same night that the more orderly Republicans wrapped things up for John McCain. With Ohio and Texas (as well as Rhode Island and Vermont) behind them, Obama still leads Clinton by a small but significant count in the pledged delegate category. The same holds true in the national popular vote.

Looming closer to the political surface now is the long-suppressed question: what to do about Michigan and Florida? You will remember that both states had their delegates stripped by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for “jumping the queue.” Caterham students can relate to this – queue jumping (cutting in line) stands out as a major social no-no in the U.K. Essentially, both states moved their primaries up ahead of Super Tuesday in defiance of DNC rules. No Democratic candidates campaigned in either state and, in Michigan, Barack Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot. Now, with still no clear nominee in sight, the clamor is increasing to do something about these two large and important states with, between them, a combined delegate count of over 300. The question of course is: what exactly to do?

The options are essentially three in number. The first, stick with the DNC’s decision and not allow delegates from either state to be seated. (A variation of this would allow the delegates into the convention hall without being able to vote.) Second, the delegates selected in the Michigan and Florida primaries held in January could be seated and allowed to vote. The third option involves some type of “do-over,” either a caucus or primary to be held probably sometime in June.

None of these options are particularly palatable – Obama would favor the first and Clinton the second. The third, the do-over option, might be a possible compromise but, as is often the case, the devil would be in the details. These would include, first and foremost, who would pay for gearing up the voting stations, election workers, security requirements, etc. Estimates put the re-do option at about $20 million for Florida and $8-12 for Michigan. The questions quickly will become – is any re-do worth it and, if so, who will pay for it ?

Discussion Question:

What do you think the Democrats should do about Michigan and Florida? Tell us your reasoning and we will post it soon in a future blog.